Posted by: dcmjlive | June 22, 2009

The Real Camp Should-a-Been Opens

After a week of the completion of my prediction-simulation series, the real camp has finally opened on you guessed it, Kris Allen’s birthday. Is this a sign that my prediction of Kris winning will come true? Well hold your horses people because as much as I took my simulation seriously, there’s one factor that could truly ruin it for Kris: the decay rate. But more on that later. The fact is, Kris reaches some trouble spots in the finals where he hit a 49 on Top 8 week, a 58 on Top 5 week and a 46 on Top 4 week. These scores aren’t bad but if my decay rate is uses a comparatively bigger one, some results may change. Here are the ones that I’m certain might be some cases:

  1. Top 13 contestants from the WildCard, save for Anoop Desai — I used decay rates for those who originally didn’t make the wild card. This doesn’t come to play in this stage because I’m still pretty confident that the ones I predicted that will come from WildCard will still make the Top 13. But Ju’not Joyner and Kristin McNamara had their scores decayed after it’s been decayed in the WildCard. This means, they could go further then what I predicted.
  2. The Judges’ Save — WNTS may decide to employ a different strategy than mine with going with the Judges’ Save. Lil Rounds was eliminated earlier than expected and WNTS might decide to save her instead of Ricky Braddy. If that were the case, Lil Rounds would still leave the next week but actually, the close scores of Ricky and Danny might be an affecting factor. Ricky had 34, Danny had 35. If my decay rates are accurate, Ricky would leave. But if not, Danny would leave making for some fiasco near the end, which would be #4. In another case, the judges save may be employed on Top 7 Week like the original and that whether Ricky or Danny is last, they’d most likely use it at that time like why they saved Matt Giraud. With that, Felicia and Ricky are the ones most likely to leave. But, the scenario within these weeks depends on #1 and the decay rates of Felicia and Ricky.
  3. The Decay Rate of Alexis – Top 5 week was a night everyone did brilliantly. Now Alexis Grace being a woman who busted out Aretha Franklin in the auditions will most certainly knock us out with RatPack standards. Thing is, she had a decay rate that affected her in my predictions that made her the clear-cut one to be eliminated. If my decay rate for Alexis is anyway wrong, Kris might not even be able to see Top 4 week.
  4. Top 4 Week – Relating to both #2 & #3 where either Danny or Kris could be eliminated earlier respectively, we would have a problem on how to conduct the duets. The most likely scenario is in my mind, a Kris-Alexis duet. (Danny leaving with Lil, Ricky getting eliminated Top 6 Week, Felicia on Top 5 Week.) It would be a wonder how to utilize old ratings to give Kris and Alexis duet numbers.
  5. Allison Iraheta – Finally, I have to implore how I decayed Allison’s grades. As usual, it could affect the finale.

But then again, I’ve run these scenarios in my head and even with this, I still stand by my predictions except my finale predictions. This is also because Kris’s web ratings for No Boundaries scored really low even if he was the lesser of roadkills on that song. So join me as we compare results. I’ll basically recap it after this blog.

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